A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the cannabidiol market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:
Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for cannabidiol market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.
Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of cannabidiol market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.
Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.
Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.
Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.
Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.
Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.
This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.
Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.
The cannabidiol market was categorized into four segments, namely source type (Hemp, Marijuana), sales type (B2B, B2C), end-use (Medical, Personal Use, Pharmaceuticals, Wellness), regions (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa).
The cannabidiol market was segmented into source type, sales type, end-use, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:
Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.
Variable analysis for demand forecast.
Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.
Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.
Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.
Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.
Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.
The cannabidiol market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into twenty-five countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; the UK; Germany; Netherlands; Switzerland; Italy; France; Poland; Czech Republic; Croatia; China; Japan; India; South Korea; New Zealand; Australia; Brazil; Argentina; Mexico; Colombia; Uruguay; Chile; South Africa; Israel.
All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.
The cannabidiol market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:
Canopy Growth Corporation - Canopy Growth Corporation is a producer and distributor of medical cannabis. The company operates through its subsidiaries, which undertake the production, packaging, and distribution of marijuana to various end users. The company’s product offerings are edibles, beverages, vapes, dried flowers, oils, concentrates, soft gel capsules, and hemp.
Aphria, Inc. - Aphria, Inc. produces and sells medical marijuana and its derivatives, such as cannabis oils through online store or phone. It markets Sativa, Indica, and hybrid varieties of marijuana. Aphria, Inc. is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the U.S. OTCQB Venture Market Stock Exchange.
Aurora Cannabis - Aurora Cannabis deals in Indica, Sativa, and hybrid varieties of cannabis. The company provides a variety of cannabis strains with different THC and CBD levels. The company is vertically integrated, as it is involved in the cultivation, development, research, and supply of cannabis to retailers.
Maricann, Inc. (Wayland Group Corporation) - Wayland Group Corporation, formerly known as Maricann Inc, is a privately held producer and distributor of medical cannabis. Its product portfolio includes cannabis oil and buds. The company mostly caters to the Canadian medical marijuana market; however, it has a presence in other emerging medical marijuana markets, such as Germany. Maricann is listed on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE).
Tilray - Tilraywas the first producer licensed to legally export cannabis products from North America to Australia, Europe, and New Zealand for commercial and research purposes. Tilray is a privately held company involved in the cultivation, processing, research, and distribution of medical marijuana. The company has GMP certified unit that processes cannabis flowers and other extracts. The company’s customers are pharmacies, physicians, patients, hospitals, governments, and researchers.
GW Pharmaceuticals, PLC - GW Pharmaceuticals, plc is a biopharmaceutical company. It mainly focuses on developing, commercializing, and discovering novel therapeutics cannabinoid products. The company’s leading cannabinoid product is EPIDIOLEX, a liquid formulation used in treating seizures. It has received Orphan Drug designation from the U.S. FDA for EPIDIOLEX for treating Dravet syndrome, Lennox- Gastaut syndrome, infantile spasms, and tuberous sclerosis complex.
ABcann Medicinals, Inc. - ABcann Medicinals, Inc. uses special technology for growing standardized medical cannabis in a controlled environment and also educates people on cannabis. It offers chemical-free, soil-grown, and pesticide-free medical cannabis and sells it based on THC and CBD levels.
Organigram Holding, Inc. - Organigram Holding, Inc. produces and markets medical cannabis within Canada. It offers a broad portfolio of cannabis oils. Some of the key brands of the company are Banook, Rossignol, Shubie, and Utopia. Organigram is a licensed medical cannabis producer regulated by the Marihuana Medical Access Regulation (MMAR) of the government of Canada.
Tikun Olam - Tikun Olam is the largest supplier of medical marijuana in Israel and is globally known as the pioneer of modern medical cannabis. It is involved in the cultivation of medical cannabis for its administration to patients. It holds the first cultivation license in Israel, Australia, and Greece. It has developed multiple award-winning strains such as Alaska, Erez, and Midnight.
The Cronos Group - The Cronos Group is a parent organization comprising various companies that hold licenses or are in the process of obtaining licenses to cultivate and process medical cannabis & for its allied businesses. The company also distributes medical cannabis to pharmacies.
Supply Side Estimates
Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.
Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.
Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.
Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.
Demand side estimates
Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets
Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent
revenue/volume
Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts
Forecasting via variable analysis
Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.
Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.
Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2023, historic information from 2018 to 2023, and forecast from 2024 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.
The report provides market value for the base year 2023 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.
The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.
We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.
All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.
Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.
Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.
Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).
Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent
Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.
GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.
We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:
Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.
Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.
The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.