Global Lubricants Industry: Fueled By A US$ 20 Billion Bio-lubricants Opportunity

Research Methodology

A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the lubricants market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:

Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for lubricants market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.

• We buy access to paid databases such as Hoover’s and Factiva for company financials, industry information, white papers, industry journals, SME journals, and more.
• We tap into Grand View’s proprietary database of data points and insights from active and archived monitoring and reporting.
• We conduct primary research with industry experts through questionnaires and one-on-one phone interviews.
• We pull from reliable secondary sources such as white papers and government statistics, published by organizations like WHO, NGOs, World Bank, etc., Key Opinion Leaders (KoL) publications, company filings, investor documents, and more.
• We purchase and review investor analyst reports, broker reports, academic commentary, government quotes, and wealth management publications for insightful third-party perspectives.

Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of lubricants market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.

• Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.

• Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.

• Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.

• Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.

Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.

• Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.

• Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.

• This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.

• Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.

Lubricants Market Categorization:

The lubricants market was categorized into two segments, namely application (Industrial, Automotive, Marine, Aerospace), and region (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & South America, Middle East & Africa).

Segment Market Methodology:

The lubricants market was segmented into application, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:

Market research approaches: Bottom-up

• Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.

• Variable analysis for demand forecast.

• Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.

• Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.

Market research approaches: Top-down

• Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.

• Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.

• Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.

Market research approaches: Combined

• This is the most common method. We apply concepts from both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to arrive at a viable conclusion.

Regional Market Methodology:

The lubricants market was analyzed at a regional level. The global was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & South America, and Middle East & Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into thirty-four countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; Mexico; the UK; Germany; Switzerland; Russia; France; Italy; Spain; Netherlands; China; India; Japan; South Korea; Malaysia; Indonesia; Vietnam; Australia; New Zealand; Kyrgyzstan; Brazil; Argentina; Colombia; Chile; Iran; Oman; UAE; Qatar; Kuwait; Saudi Arabia; South Africa; Angola; Nigeria.

All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.

lubricants market companies & financials:

The lubricants market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:

• ExxonMobil Corp. is a global manufacturer & supplier of synthetic lubricants. The company mainly deals in three business segments that include upstream (oil & gas, E&P, shipping, and wholesale operations), downstream (refining, marketing, and retail operations), and chemicals. The product portfolio of the company includes consumer, commercial, industrial, aviation, marine lubricants, base stocks & specialty products. ExxonMobil owns 37 oil refineries in 21 countries with a refining capacity of 6.3 million barrels per day.

• Royal Dutch Shell is an integrated oil & gas company engaged in business segments that include upstream, integrated gas and new energies, downstream, and projects & technology. The company operates internationally and explores & produces crude oil, natural gas & natural gas liquids (NGL), transport oil & gas, as well as other chemical intermediaries to different markets. The company’s petrochemical product portfolio includes acetone, ethylene oxide, ethylene glycols, phenol, polyols, propylene glycols, and propylene oxides. Downstream activities involve refining and marketing of oil products and chemicals, which are managed globally. Under projects & technology, the company provides technical services and technology to upstream and downstream activities. The company trades crude oil and natural gas by converting them into redefined products, including aviation fuel, gasoline, marine fuel diesel, LNG for transport of bitumen & sulfur, heating oil, and lubricants.

• BP plc is an integrated oil & gas company that operates in the areas of upstream & downstream segments and alternative energy. The company’s upstream segment includes exploration & production of oil & gas, midstream transportation, processing, and storage. In addition, it also includes trading of natural gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) and power & natural gas liquids (NGL). The company’s downstream segment includes the manufacturing and distribution of products that include fuels, petrochemicals & lubricants and has 17,800 service stations worldwide. The company’s alternative energy segment concentrates on building sustainable energy based on biofuels, carbon solutions, and electrification. Some brands under which British Petroleum operates in the market include BP, Aral, Castrol, and Wild Bean Café. The company produces over 3.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company’s major products & services include BP gas/petrol stations, Castrol (lubricants), AMPM (U.S.), Aral (Europe), Air BP (Aviation Fuel), BP Solar Warranty, BP Acetyls (Europe), BP biofuels, and fuel card & credit cards.

• Total Energies is a major oil & gas integrated company. The company has its business segments in upstream, refining & specialty chemicals, and marketing & services. Total Oil India Private Ltd. is an entirely owned subsidiary of TOTAL. It has exploration and production activities in more than 50 countries. It operates in the renewable energies and power generation sector. The Company’s ongoing activities are in United States, Canada / South America, Middle East Europe & CIS, Africa, Asia-Pacific and Australia/ Oceania. Its products have numerous applications in transportation, household appliances, food & industrial packaging, and other sectors. The company transports 131 million metric tons of crude oil and other refined products.

• Chevron Corporation is a vertically integrated oil & gas company and through its subsidiaries is engaged in business operations that include upstream & downstream operations. Upstream segments include exploration & production of oil & natural gas. Downstream operations include manufacturing & distribution of chemicals, lubricants & additives. The lubricant product portfolio includes commercial transportation, industrial and off-highway equipment, passenger vehicles, and inland marine. Chevron lubricant brands operating in the market include Delo, Havoline, Supreme, Ursa TECHRON, ISOCLEAN & Clarity. It provides finished lubricants & premium base oils to commercial, consumer, industrial, and marine customers across the globe.

• Fuchs operates as a subsidiary of Fuchs Petrolub SE, a German lubricants producer. The company produces lubricants for a variety of industries, including mining, energy, transportation, industrial manufacturing, construction, consumer goods, and agriculture. The product portfolio includes compressor oils, corrosion preventatives, engine oils, food grade, gear oils, glass lubricants, grease, hydraulic oils, metalworking & motorcycle. It has a total of 54 operating companies with 34 production plants across the globe.

• Castrol India Ltd. specializes in manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of lubricant oils & greases for commercial, domestic, and industrial applications. The company operates as a subsidiary of British Petroleum PLC and has an operational presence in over 40 countries globally. Castrol India Ltd. manufactures and sells engine oil, transmission fluids, and other lubricants to the automotive industry under the Castrol brand. The company’s reportable business segment consists of a single segment of lubricants. The majority of all revenue comes from India. Castrol Limited was formerly known as CC Wakefield & Company Ltd. and changed its name to Castrol Limited in August 1960. Major OEMs such as Audi, BMW, Ford, MAN, Tata, and Volkswagen have approved their products. Castrol the lubricant brand acquired by BP.

• Amsoil Inc. manufactures & distributes synthetic lubricants & oils for automotive, power sports, industrial, and racing applications. The company's product portfolio includes motor oils, grease, compressor oils, transmission fluids, hydraulic oils, fuel additives, filters, gear lubricants, clothing & merchandise, and garage accessories. The company has regional warehouses in North America and distribution centers across the globe. Amsoil has a wide network of independent dealers worldwide and markets its products online as well. The company caters its products to automotive & light trucks, motorcycles, motor homes, diesel motors, classic & vintage vehicles, dirt bikes, ATVs & UTVs, semi-trailer trucks, boats & personal watercraft, compact imports, tuners, and snowmobiles.

• JX Nippon Oil & Gas Corporation is involved in oil refining & marketing, export & import of coal & gas, electricity supply & development, and manufacturing & marketing of conventional energy, including solar storage batteries & fuel cells. The company caters to several end-use industries such as optics, textiles, industrial, automotive, marine, and metals. The company’s petroleum & petrochemical products come under the Eneos brand. Nippon Oil’s major refineries include Sendai, Negishi, Mizushima, Marifu, Oita, Muroran, Kawasaki, Kashima, and Osaka refinery.

• Phillips 66 is a wholly owned chemical & lubricant subsidiary of ConocoPhillips. The company has introduced several pioneer products within the lubricants industry such as oil for winters, pre-packed & factory-sealed one-quart oil can, and the first 2,000-mile motor oil. Its operations include refining & marketing of petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and lubricants. The company is also involved in gathering & processing natural gas & natural gas liquids (NGL) for powering businesses, heating homes, cooking, and electricity.

Value chain-based sizing & forecasting

Supply Side Estimates

• Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.

• Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.

• Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.

• Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.

Demand side estimates

• Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets

• Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent

• revenue/volume

• Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts

• Forecasting via variable analysis

Lubricants Market Report Objectives:

• Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.

• Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.

• Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2023, historic information from 2018 to 2022, and forecast from 2024 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.

Lubricants Market Report Assumptions:

• The report provides market value for the base year 2023 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.

• The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.

• We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.

• All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.

• Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.

• Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.

• Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

• Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).

• Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent

• Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.

Primary Research

GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.

We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:

• Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.

• Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.

The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.