A three-pronged approach was followed for deducing the cannabis cultivation market estimates and forecasts. The process has three steps: information procurement, analysis, and validation. The whole process is cyclical, and steps repeat until the estimates are validated. The three steps are explained in detail below:
Information procurement: Information procurement is one of the most extensive and important stages in our research process, and quality data is critical for accurate analysis. We followed a multi-channel data collection process for cannabis cultivation market to gather the most reliable and current information possible.
Analysis: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilized different methods of cannabis cultivation market data depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Research Efforts: Bottom-up Approach for estimating and forecasting demand size and opportunity, top-down Approach for new product forecasting and penetration, and combined approach of both Bottom-up and Top-down for full coverage analysis.
Value-Chain-Based Sizing & Forecasting: Supply-side estimates for understanding potential revenue through competitive benchmarking, forecasting, and penetration modeling.
Demand-side estimates for identifying parent and ancillary markets, segment modeling, and heuristic forecasting.
Qualitative Functional Deployment (QFD) Modelling for market share assessment.
Market formulation and validation: We mine the data collected to establish baselines for forecasting, identify trends and opportunities, gain insight into consumer demographics and drivers, and so much more. We utilize different methods of data analysis depending on the type of information we’re trying to uncover in our research.
Market Formulation: This step involves the finalization of market numbers. This step on an internal level is designed to manage outputs from the Data Analysis step.
Data Normalization: The final market estimates and forecasts are then aligned and sent to industry experts, in-panel quality control managers for validation.
This step also entails the finalization of the report scope and data representation pattern.
Validation: The process entails multiple levels of validation. All these steps run in parallel, and the study is forwarded for publishing only if all three levels render validated results.
The cannabis cultivation market was categorized into three segments, namely biomass (Hemp, Marijuana), application (Medical Consumption, Recreational Consumption, Industrial Consumption), and region (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa).
The cannabis cultivation market was segmented into biomass, application, and regions. The demand at a segment level was deduced using a funnel method. Concepts like the TAM, SAM, SOM, etc., were put into practice to understand the demand. We at GVR deploy three methods to deduce market estimates and determine forecasts. These methods are explained below:
Demand estimation of each product across countries/regions summed up to from the total market.
Variable analysis for demand forecast.
Demand estimation via analyzing paid database, and company financials either via annual reports or paid database.
Primary interviews for data revalidation and insight collection.
Used extensively for new product forecasting or analyzing penetration levels.
Tool used invoice product flow and penetration models Use of regression multi-variant analysis for forecasting Involves extensive use of paid and public databases.
Primary interviews and vendor-based primary research for variable impact analysis.
The cannabis cultivation market was analyzed at a regional level. The globe was divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa, keeping in focus variables like consumption patterns, export-import regulations, consumer expectations, etc. These regions were further divided into twenty-four countries, namely, the U.S.; Canada; the UK; Germany; Spain; France; Italy; Netherlands; Croatia; Switzerland; Czech Republic; Australia; China; Japan; India; South Korea; New Zealand; Thailand; Uruguay; Chile; Colombia; Mexico; Israel; South Africa.
All three above-mentioned market research methodologies were applied to arrive at regional-level conclusions. The regions were then summed up to form the global market.
The cannabis cultivation market was analyzed via companies operating in the sector. Analyzing these companies and cross-referencing them to the demand equation helped us validate our assumptions and conclusions. Key market players analyzed include:
Pacific Cannabis Growers, Inc. - Pacific Cannabis Growers, Inc. is a privately held company located in Humboldt County, California. It cultivates legal medical marijuana and complies with CA prop 215 & SB420. The company operates in its 10,000 sq. ft. outdoor cultivation facility with Mixed Light use permit. In March 2017, CaliPharms, Inc. acquired a 51% stake in the company. However, in August 2017, the acquisition was terminated, and Pacific Cannabis Growers works as an independent entity in cannabis cultivation business. Some of the strains cultivated by the company are Blue Cheese, Kosher Kush, Girl Scout Cookies, Dairy Queen, and SkyWalker OG.
Atlas Growers - Atlas Growers is a wholly owned subsidiary of Atlas Biotechnologies, Inc. It is a federally licensed cultivator and producer of medical cannabis in the country. It holds a total of 160 acres of land in Alberta, which can be useful for future expansion plans. Furthermore, it has a 38,000 sq. ft. purpose-built indoor facility and a production capacity of more than 5,000 kg of dried cannabis per year. In addition, it owns 50% share of Coastline Canada, Inc., a British-Columbia-based cannabis cultivator.
CannTrust Holdings, Inc. - CannTrust Holdings, Inc. is a public company, operating as a licensed and regulated provider of cannabis at the federal level. It provides medical and recreational cannabis with high-quality standards & purity. It produces standardized products that are helpful for physicians in providing precise dosage to patients. Furthermore, the company operates through two state-of-the-art cultivation and processing facilities. The first facility is of 60,000 sq. ft., located in Vaughan, and second facility is of 450,000 sq. ft., located in Niagara.
The Hydropothecary Corporation - The Hydropothecary Corporation was incorporated in 2013 in Quebec, Canada. In August 2018, the company changed its name to HEXO Corp. It is a licensed producer of medical and recreational cannabis. It operates its medical cannabis business under the Hydropothecary brand and utilizes HEXO brand for recreational or adult-use cannabis products. It operates through 2 million sq. ft. facilities located in Ontario and Quebec. Some of the company’s brands are HEXO, HEXO Plus, and Original Stash.
Better Holdings - Better Holdings is engaged in cannabis cultivation, production, and manufacturing business. The company has two operational subsidiaries: Better Israel and Better Australia. Better Israel is the company’s R&D hub and sales pipeline for medical cannabis in the country, serving over 5,000 patients monthly. Furthermore, Better Australia is fully licensed for production, export, and sales of medical-grade cannabis. In addition, the majority stake of Better Holdings is owned by Better Australia. Moreover, the company contains a gene bank of all its proprietary strains with thousands of seeds and hundreds of mother plants.
Canopy Growth Corporation - Canopy Growth Corporation is a producer and distributor of medical cannabis. The company operates through subsidiaries involved in production, packaging, and distribution of marijuana. It is a publicly traded company listed on TXSV under the symbol WEED and, as of December 2019 on the NYSE, under the trading symbol CGC. Tweed, Inc.; Bedrocan Canada; and Mettrum (now Spectrum Cannabis) are the three core brands of the company. The company sells and promotes its products through Tweed Main Street. Its product offerings are dried flowers, oils, concentrates, soft gel capsules, and hemp.
Aphria, Inc. - Aphria, Inc. produces & sells medical marijuana and its derivatives, such as cannabis oil. The company also provides consultation to patients and physicians. The company sells products through its website or e-commerce channels. It markets sativa, indica, and hybrid varieties of marijuana. Aphria, Inc. is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the U.S. OTCQB Venture Market Stock Exchange. Broken Coast Cannabis Ltd.; Broken Coast Cannabis Ltd.; FL-Group; ASG Pharma Ltd.; Cannan Growers, Inc.; and Pure Natures Wellness, Inc. are some of the important subsidiaries of the company.
Aurora Cannabis - Aurora Cannabis is a producer and distributor of dried cannabis & cannabis oil. The company provides variety of cannabis strains with different THC and CBD levels. It deals in indica, sativa, and hybrid varieties of cannabis. It also provides patients with consultation and information on cannabis. The company is vertically integrated, as it is involved in cultivation, development, research, and supply of cannabis to retailers. As of July 2019, the company was operating in 24 countries. It has entered into strategic agreements with various companies, catering to different industry verticals, such as pharmaceuticals, food & beverages, and others.
Tilray - Tilray is a privately held company involved in cultivation, processing, and sale of medical marijuana. The company has a GMP-certified unit that processes cannabis flowers and other extracts. Its customer base includes pharmacies, physicians, patients, hospitals, government, and researchers. It was the first producer licensed to legally export cannabis products from North America to South America, Australia, European Union, and New Zealand. Its product portfolio includes whole marijuana flowers, ground marijuana, and marijuana drops & capsules. It also sells accessories such as vaporizers and storage containers.
Organigram Holdings, Inc. - Organigram Holdings, Inc. markets its products through subsidiary Organigram, Inc. The company produces and markets medical cannabis within Canada. It offers a broad portfolio of cannabis oils. Some of the key brands of the company are Banook, Rossignol, Shubie, and Utopia. Organigram is a licensed medical cannabis producer regulated by the Marihuana Medical Access Regulation (MMAR) of the government of Canada. It is a federally incorporated company.
Supply Side Estimates
Company revenue estimation via referring to annual reports, investor presentations, and Hoover’s.
Segment revenue determination via variable analysis and penetration modeling.
Competitive benchmarking to identify market leaders and their collective revenue shares.
Forecasting via analyzing commercialization rates, pipelines, market initiatives, distribution networks, etc.
Demand side estimates
Identifying parent markets and ancillary markets
Segment penetration analysis to obtain pertinent
revenue/volume
Heuristic forecasting with the help of subject matter experts
Forecasting via variable analysis
Understanding market dynamics (in terms of drivers, restraints, & opportunities) in the countries.
Understanding trends & variables in the individual countries & their impact on growth and using analytical tools to provide high-level insights into the market dynamics and the associated growth pattern.
Understanding market estimates and forecasts (with the base year as 2022, historic information from 2018 to 2021, and forecast from 2023 to 2030). Regional estimates & forecasts for each category are available and are summed up to form the global market estimates.
The report provides market value for the base year 2022 and a yearly forecast till 2030 in terms of revenue/volume or both. The market for each of the segment outlooks has been provided on region & country basis for the above-mentioned forecast period.
The key industry dynamics, major technological trends, and application markets are evaluated to understand their impact on the demand for the forecast period. The growth rates were estimated using correlation, regression, and time-series analysis.
We have used the bottom-up approach for market sizing, analyzing key regional markets, dynamics, & trends for various products and end-users. The total market has been estimated by integrating the country markets.
All market estimates and forecasts have been validated through primary interviews with the key industry participants.
Inflation has not been accounted for to estimate and forecast the market.
Numbers may not add up due to rounding off.
Europe consists of EU-8, Central & Eastern Europe, along with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Asia Pacific includes South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania (Australia & New Zealand).
Latin America includes Central American countries and the South American continent
Middle East includes Western Asia (as assigned by the UN Statistics Division) and the African continent.
GVR strives to procure the latest and unique information for reports directly from industry experts, which gives it a competitive edge. Quality is of utmost importance to us, therefore every year we focus on increasing our experts’ panel. Primary interviews are one of the critical steps in identifying recent market trends and scenarios. This process enables us to justify and validate our market estimates and forecasts to our clients. With more than 8,000 reports in our database, we have connected with some key opinion leaders across various domains, including healthcare, technology, consumer goods, and the chemical sector. Our process starts with identifying the right platform for a particular type of report, i.e., emails, LinkedIn, seminars, or telephonic conversation, as every report is unique and requires a differentiated approach.
We send out questionnaires to different experts from various regions/ countries, which is dependent on the following factors:
Report/Market scope: If the market study is global, we send questionnaires to industry experts across various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and MEA.
Market Penetration: If the market is driven by technological advancements, population density, disease prevalence, or other factors, we identify experts and send out questionnaires based on region or country dominance.
The time to start receiving responses from industry experts varies based on how niche or well-penetrated the market is. Our reports include a detailed chapter on the KoL opinion section, which helps our clients understand the perspective of experts already in the market space.