“The increasing demand for methanol is driven by its versatile applications in the production of chemicals, fuels, and as a clean energy source across industries.”
The methanol category is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% from 2024 to 2030. The increasing consumption of methanol in end-use industries such as automotive, construction, and chemical industries is driving the category’s growth. The product is utilized in the production of Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), and due to its low risk of flammability, it is also used as an alternative to conventional transportation gasoline-based fuels. According to the Methanol Institute 2023 report, globally, 90 methanol plants combined have a production capacity of around 110 million metric tons. Each day around 200,000 tons of methanol is used as feedstock in chemicals or as a transportation fuel. Hence, to meet the rising demand, the substance manufacturers are increasing their production capacity steadily.
Additionally, the growing preference for sustainability has led to an increase in demand for renewable and low-carbon methanol. Renewable methanol reduces carbon dioxide emissions by up to 95% and cuts down emissions of nitrogen oxide by 80% as compared to conventional fuels. Companies are focusing on producing green methanol. For instance, in September 2023, OCI Global declared plans to double the production capacity of green methanol in its U.S. plant to around 400,000 metric tons per year.
The global methanol category size was valued at USD 35.7 billion in 2022. The substance plays a key role in the production of olefins, including ethylene and propylene, through the Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) process. These olefins are extensively employed in the manufacturing of synthetic rubber, synthetic plastics, pharmaceuticals, and textile dyes. Additionally, certain ethylene derivatives contribute to the production of ethylene glycol and vinyl acetate monomers, which are utilized in paints, coatings, adhesives, and various other industries. Companies such as Methanex, Proman, SABIC, and OCI Global focus on production capacity expansion to meet the demand from end-use industries.
Dimethyl ether (DME) is a clean-burning fuel that can be used in a variety of applications, including transportation, power generation, and industrial applications. The demand for methanol for DME production is expected to grow as it is seen as a more environmentally friendly alternative to diesel and other fossil fuels.
“What are the characteristics of the methanol category?”
The global methanol category is fragmented, with the presence of top players such as Methanex, Proman, SABIC, and OCI Global. Companies increasingly focus on sustainable production along with capacity expansion. These products are classified as hazardous materials owing to the stringent transportation regulations, which force producers to transport the materials by adhering to the rules, and regulations of different governing bodies. For instance, handling, transport, and shipping of hazardous materials is strictly regulated under the U.S., Canadian, and global transportation of dangerous goods regulations. The regulations apply to companies transporting methanol and are required to give employees proper training for transporting hazardous material.
Production mainly relies on raw materials such as natural gas or biomass. These feedstocks are widely available, which reduces the bargaining power of the suppliers. Buyers of methanol mostly include companies/consumers from end-use industries such as chemicals, plastics, and automotive. These industries may have some bargaining power, especially if there are alternative sources of methanol. However, the uniqueness of methanol in certain applications may limit buyer power to some extent. The production involves significant capital investment in manufacturing plants. Additionally, new entrants would need access to feedstocks like natural gas or biomass, which might be controlled by existing players. Regulatory requirements and environmental concerns also pose barriers to entry.
Key suppliers covered in the category:
SABIC
Methanex
Proman
OCI Global
Mitsui & Co.
Celanese
Simalin
BASF
Mitsubishi Gas Chemical
Petronas
“What are some of the major cost components in producing methanol? How are these components impacting the category?”
Raw materials (like natural gas, and coal), labor, energy, equipment costs, transportation, and others are some of the key cost components in methanol production. Other cost considerations include repair and maintenance, legal, and packaging costs. Raw material, labor, energy, and equipment costs account for a major part of the overall costs. Methanol prices are highly dependent on the prices and supply of raw materials. The average cost of fossil fuel (like natural gas and coal) -based methanol can be from USD 100 to USD 250 per ton. According to the Methanex 2023 annual report, methanol prices are around 50% linked to the supply of natural gas.
The chart below shows the total cost structure associated with the production:
Methanol production involves the usage of various types of machinery, such as reformers, PSA, MeOH reactors, distillation columns, compressors, and heat exchangers, which form part of the costs. Reformers account for more than 50% of the equipment cost component in methanol production through the B-ATR process. Methanol production is an energy-intensive process. Electricity is required for the conversion of feedstock to synthesis gas (syngas) and the subsequent synthesis of methanol. The cost of electricity contributes significantly to the overall production cost.
The following chart indicates the methanol CFR China Specific Origin Prices from Q2 of 2021 to Q1 of 2024 in USD/Ton:
The price of this chemical substance is highly impacted by the prices, supply and demand, weather conditions, and storage levels of natural gas. During the second quarter of 2022, prices of methanol in Asia declined because of oversupply and weak market sentiments. In September 2023, methanol prices in China slipped to USD 306/ton CFR Qingdao. The operational capacity of local plants in Asia decreased significantly due to reduced purchasing activities in the region. However, China experienced an increase in its domestic supply and most transactions were conducted on a prompt basis.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2023 report, global gas consumption reduced by an estimated 1.5% year-on-year as of 2022. The decline was due to high gas prices used in the industrial and power sector. However, the demand for natural gas in Asia increased by 2.5% in the first eight months of 2023. The demand was majorly concentrated in China due to rising consumption. North America witnessed an increase in demand for natural gas by a mere 1% from Q1 to Q3 of 2023. The rise in natural gas prices not only influenced the cost of LNG but also exerted upward pressure on methanol prices, given that most of the production of the category is reliant on natural gas.
The report provides a detailed analysis of the cost structure of methanol and the pricing models adopted by prominent suppliers in this category.
“What are some of the best sourcing countries considered for methanol?”
Asia Pacific dominated the category, accounting for a major share in 2022. According to the MIT technology review report 2022, 60% of global methanol is produced and consumed in China. Research from the China Methanol Industry Conference 2023 report shows that China’s production has crossed 100 million tons, with around 10% produced from natural gas. In October 2022, the first global commercial CO2 to-methanol plant started in Henan Province, which derives methanol from carbon captured during lime production. Chinese companies are developing new models, and more cities across China are issuing policies for methanol-fueled vehicles. Growing demand for the category is expected to fuel the growth in the country.
In terms of sourcing methanol, China, Saudi Arabia, and Trinidad and Tobago are the preferred countries. These countries account for over 81% of the total global methanol capacity. This is due to low labor costs, high production volume, and rising exports. Saudi Arabia exported around 4.6 million tons of the product in 2022 which was 3% higher as compared to 2021. Similarly, Trinidad and Tobago exports were around 4 million tons in 2022. Additionally, rising initiatives in these countries towards methanol are anticipated to drive its growth. For instance, from 2021 to 2023, with the assistance of financial support and expertise from the Methanol Institute, Chinese companies introduced 16 group standards for various methanol vehicle components under the China Association of Automotive Manufacturers (CAAM). Anticipated increases in demand from end-use industries are expected to drive the category's growth in these countries as they strive to meet the rising market needs.
“In the hybrid outsourcing model, companies outsource some parts of the overall operation to third parties. Generally, critical operations are carried out in-house.”
In terms of methanol sourcing intelligence, the hybrid model is a popular engagement model in the category, combining in-house and full-service outsourcing. Companies such as Methanex, SABIC, and Mitsui & Co. have a complete in-house team for converting natural gas into methanol through the process. However, some methanol producers opt for partial outsourcing, such as procuring raw materials, transportation, and packaging services. Buyers of the product look for the quality of the product, discount offerings on bulk purchases, end-use served, and production capacity of the supplier.
The most prevalent type of operating model is an approved provider model since businesses in this category are required to follow specific regulations during the methanol production process. In this model, manufacturers must comply with rules and regulations specified by various government bodies such as EPA, ACGIH, DOT, OSHA, and NOISH. Methanol can cause skin irritation, skin rash, and dryness. Exposure to high concentrations can cause headaches. As a result, suppliers must produce the category with caution.
The report also provides details regarding day one, quick wins, portfolio analysis, key negotiation strategies of key suppliers, and low-cost/best-cost sourcing analysis.
Report Attribute |
Details |
Methanol Category Growth Rate |
CAGR of 8.9% from 2024 to 2030 |
Base Year for Estimation |
2023 |
Pricing Growth Outlook |
3% - 4% (Annually) |
Pricing Models |
Volume-based pricing, competition-based pricing |
Supplier Selection Scope |
Cost and pricing, past engagements, productivity, geographical presence |
Supplier Selection Criteria |
Purity and grade of the product, end-use served, production capacity, bulk purchase quantities, delivery option, safety and environmental compliance, location and presence of supplier, and others |
Report Coverage |
Revenue forecast, supplier ranking, supplier positioning matrix, emerging technology, pricing models, cost structure, competitive landscape, growth factors, trends, engagement, and operating model |
Key Companies Profiled |
SABIC, Methanex, Proman, OCI Global, Mitsui & Co., Celanese, Simalin, BASF, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, and Petronas |
Regional Scope |
Global |
Historical Data |
2021 - 2022 |
Revenue Forecast in 2030 |
USD 65.4 billion |
Quantitative Units |
Revenue in USD billion and CAGR from 2024 to 2030 |
Customization Scope |
Up to 48 hours of customization free with every report. |
Pricing and Purchase Options |
Avail customized purchase options to meet your exact research needs. Explore purchase options |
b. The global methanol category size was valued at approximately USD 36 billion in 2023 and is estimated to witness a CAGR of 8.9% from 2024 to 2030.
b. Rising methanol demand, driven by its application in fuel production, petrochemicals, and as an environmentally friendly energy source with lower carbon footprints compared to conventional fuels are driving the growth of the category.
b. According to the LCC/BCC sourcing analysis China, Saudi Arabia, and Trinidad and Tobago are the preferred countries for sourcing methanol.
b. This category is fragmented with the presence of numerous players competing for market share. Some of the key players are SABIC, Methanex, Proman, OCI Global, Mitsui & Co., Celanese, Simalin, BASF, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, and Petronas
b. Raw material (natural gas, coal), labor, energy, equipment costs, transportation, and others are some of the key cost components of this category. Other costs include repair and maintenance, legal, and packaging costs.
b. Evaluating suppliers for the quality and grade of methanol, end-use industries they serve, purchasing from low-cost nations, and selecting suppliers that offer appropriate pricing for bulk purchases, adhere to thorough standards and assurance practices. Identifying prospective suppliers, examining samples for quality verification, and establishing long-term relationships for sourcing raw materials are considered optimal practices in this regard.
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Component wise cost break down for better negotiation for the client, highlights the key cost drivers in the market with future price fluctuation for different materials (e.g.: steel, aluminum, etc.) used in the production process
Offering cost transparency for different products / services procured by the client. A typical report involves 2-3 case scenarios helping clients to select the best suited engagement with the supplier
Determining and forecasting salaries for specific skill set labor to make decision on outsourcing vs in-house.
A typical newsletter study by capturing latest information for specific suppliers related to: M&As, technological innovations, expansion, litigations, bankruptcy etc.
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